The latest article that uses absolutes and broad generalizations to imply an otherwise non-existent struggle between Flash and HTML5 is from UX Booth, "What the Demise of Flash Means for the User Experience." To be fair to this article, I see regular missives on Flash vs. HTML5 and this particular UX Booth article is just an example of many of them in one easy to cite place.
The opening gives away the false premises for the rest of the piece:
Adobe's decision to cease development of the mobile Flash platform and increase their investment in HTML5-related efforts created perhaps the final piece of conclusive evidence that HTML5 is the current go-to technology for creating ubiquitous user experiences regardless of device.
Adobe has held that the fragmentation of mobile devices is too hard to keep up with on its own. Flash will still exist for mobile wrapped in AIR applications instead, and Flash is not going away from the desktop. Adobe's decision to increase investment in HTML5 (via Edge and to a lesser extent Muse) is mostly unrelated since there is a market for an HTML5 authoring tool independent of Flash.
Not only is this neither conclusive nor the final piece of evidence that HTML5 is the current go-to technology, this is anecdotal evidence at best. In addition, HTML5 itself is nowhere near complete and the element often regarded as the Flash-killer,
canvas, isn't anywhere near as robust as Flash and still lacks strong scripting or styling support in the specs.
I think it's fair to challenge the claim that HTML5 creates "ubiquitous user experiences regardless of device" when you consider all the polyfills and shims that need to be implemented to create similar experiences on a few devices. It's also fair to say that my netbook does not handle some of the related HTML5 specifications the same as my tablet or mobile phone, partly due to various levels of hardware and browser support. Let's not even get into video and audio codecs or the touch events specification (neither of which are part of the core HTML5 specification).
HTML5 excels at giving users a delightfully inconsistent experience on any device through the concepts of "graceful degradation" and "progressive enhancement."
Those terms pre-date HTML5 and I can do both with HTML4 and CSS2. The author continues on and cites responsive design as a feature of HTML5, even though my own site is an example of an HTML4 site using responsive design to adapt to assorted displays.
Additionally, more than 90 percent of all smartphones and tablets are HTML5-enabled, which means that all the benefits of HTML5 can be utilized today to provide impressive mobile websites.
The author's math doesn't bear out the assertion — by the author's numbers, 10% are not HTML5-enabled and so cannot benefit from HTML5. For the other 90% that are, even they cannot enjoy all (author's word) the benefits of HTML5 today.
Making or upgrading to an HTML5 site can be as minimal as simply using HTML5's doctype [...]
The implication here is that simply changing a doctype gets you all the benefits of HTML5, when in reality you still have the same HTML, CSS and script.
The post never does answer its own question — what does the demise of Flash mean for the user experience? From the article, more HTML5 use. In itself that doesn't tell me how the user experience is affected, just how developers are affected. If the developer does a good job, the user experience doesn't need to change. The user shouldn't need to worry about the underlying technology.
I'd love to see more practical discussions of what HTML5 (and related specs) can do today along with all the nifty experiments that are moving the collection of specifications along.
Update: May 8, 2012
The BBC makes this same set of mistakes in its piece Coding the future: HTML5 takes the internet by storm.